All over the US, value-minded investors are noticing that high-yield bonds have been actually paying some yield, with the trend that keeping GMO is kept from jumping in with both feet as an indication that a new default cycle is about to occur. Knowing that lending has a distinct cycle, investors now see defaults previously rocking the market being characterized by easily available money loaned at low standards and defaults almost never running at the long-term average. Rather, they are often seen running below the average for long stretches of time when the market is calm.
One difficulty in estimating defaults is that they are not correlated to the grimness of a recession. For example, the 2008-2009 period was seen as the least bad default cycle, while the 2000-2003 cycle, on the other hand, brought about the worst defaults despite containing the most modest recession in the history of the US. This means that high-yield investors should always look into the severity of a default cycle, the compensation they would receive after defaults, and the return they would make over the Treasury for the risk of making investments in these securities.
In this matter, technical factors should be considered. While you will have no guarantees that high-yield bonds will lead to a good outcome, considering that recovery and default are unknowable, the results should be acceptable and even excellent. Take note that when junk-bond prices fall, they would have a difficult hard time stopping at fair value, like when huge amounts of BBB bonds begin to get downgraded, the junk-bond market size can increase dramatically as quick as it would decline, with sellers selling quickly and buyers typically needing time to analyze their strategies. Though bond dealers had stepped in to offer liquidity to sellers while other buyers did their homework in the past, banks today can no longer offer this service due to new regulatory requirements. Moreover, as hedge funds specializing in distressed debt charges need bonds to trade at exceptionally low prices, this requirement eliminates them as potential buyers until significant hindrances emerge on the market.
All in all, it is wise to waiting for a better entry point. High-yield debts might not warrant a permanent place in your portfolio, so you should look for experienced and skilled investors to help you navigate high-yield markets.